Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 10.885600 12.474972 14.183055 16.151316 18.352742 20.734987 23.503761
2025-11-23 8.340104 10.453965 12.901124 15.927690 19.553215 23.738822 28.917594
2025-11-30 7.170824 9.521613 12.374986 16.063592 20.672595 26.206053 33.312584
2025-12-07 6.398185 8.945104 12.169166 16.501744 22.116778 29.087700 38.327557
2025-12-14 5.563217 8.152911 11.558476 16.296983 22.640430 30.750918 41.801021
2025-12-21 4.710097 7.227771 10.663367 15.606074 22.429993 31.400140 43.939703
2025-12-28 4.361504 6.958681 10.614730 16.023077 23.682333 33.981873 48.684017
2026-01-04 4.021619 6.660341 10.486568 16.297478 24.725500 36.300966 53.147113
2026-01-11 3.620148 6.224396 10.114036 16.177173 25.179711 37.802195 56.520334
2026-01-18 3.261615 5.816168 9.742371 16.017478 25.545308 39.167983 59.729638
2026-01-25 2.985406 5.510447 9.497233 16.019734 26.130607 40.849743 63.429516
2026-02-01 2.771897 5.286017 9.357444 16.165384 26.923784 42.848285 67.643803
2026-02-08 2.530719 4.996100 9.096861 16.112552 27.423769 44.457615 71.391111
2026-02-15 2.295648 4.693433 8.790494 15.961796 27.756100 45.821944 74.821329
2026-02-22 2.132460 4.502625 8.653551 16.071748 28.493525 47.813755 79.248582
2026-03-01 2.039599 4.433153 8.718479 16.519713 29.792272 50.715499 85.164083
2026-03-08 1.854088 4.167063 8.414377 16.311343 29.991641 51.888293 88.423626
2026-03-15 1.619632 3.779121 7.858063 15.621084 29.338973 51.664136 89.459314
2026-03-22 1.555518 3.730204 7.922899 16.038001 30.583846 54.539518 95.516365
2026-03-29 1.477866 3.645025 7.911705 16.312782 31.590058 57.053768 101.065083
2026-04-05 1.359743 3.460851 7.695181 16.192322 31.891902 58.405987 104.756465
2026-04-12 1.247825 3.278198 7.466784 16.032517 32.110057 59.617079 108.243476
2026-04-19 1.162359 3.146046 7.328902 16.034767 32.615459 61.324919 112.600860